Are Reliable Truckers Dead? What the New Driver License Crackdown Means for Your Shipments

If you've been shipping freight lately, you might have noticed something: finding reliable carriers is getting tougher, and rates aren't exactly dropping. While "reliable truckers are dead" might be a bit dramatic, there's definitely truth to the fact that the trucking landscape is changing fast: and not necessarily in shippers' favor.

The latest shake-up? New driver license verification rules that went into effect in 2025 are making it even harder for trucking companies to keep drivers on the road. Combined with the ongoing driver shortage that's been plaguing the industry for years, these changes are creating a perfect storm that's hitting shippers right in the wallet.

Let's break down what's really happening, why it matters for your shipments, and most importantly, what you can do about it.

What's This CDL Crackdown All About?

In 2025, the Department of Transportation and Department of Homeland Security rolled out new rules requiring all states to verify applicants' citizenship or immigration status through federal databases before issuing or renewing commercial driver's licenses (CDLs). Sounds reasonable enough, right?

Here's the catch: this policy is hitting the trucking industry at exactly the wrong time. Foreign-born drivers make up nearly 18% of the U.S. trucking workforce: that's almost one in five drivers. This percentage has been steadily growing from just 11% back in 2010, so we're talking about a significant chunk of the people moving your freight.

The new verification system affects three main groups:

• Visa holders who might get flagged as "unverified" due to system delays

• DACA recipients whose licenses could be revoked without active work permits

• Undocumented workers in states that previously allowed them to get licenses

Even legal permanent residents aren't immune: database mismatches can create bureaucratic headaches that keep experienced drivers off the road.

The Numbers Don't Lie: We're Already Short on Drivers

Before this crackdown even started, the American Trucking Associations estimated we were already short over 80,000 drivers. That shortage is projected to hit 160,000 by 2030. Now add in the new licensing requirements, and you've got a recipe for even tighter capacity.

Immigration attorney Richard T. Herman puts it bluntly: "Tens of thousands of legally present foreign truck drivers may lose or be denied CDLs as states tighten immigration status checks." When you're already operating with a driver shortage, losing even more qualified drivers is like trying to fill a bucket with a bigger hole in the bottom.

What This Means for Your Shipments

Let's get real about how these changes are affecting your freight:

Higher Rates Are Here to Stay

With fewer drivers available, basic supply and demand kicks in. Truckers have more leverage to negotiate higher rates, and carriers are passing those costs along to shippers. The days of rock-bottom shipping rates are officially over, at least for the foreseeable future.

This isn't just a temporary blip either. When capacity gets tight, transportation costs typically translate directly into higher prices across the supply chain. If you're shipping regularly, you've probably already seen this firsthand.

Delivery Delays Are More Common

Reduced workforce capacity means longer wait times, especially during peak seasons. Holiday shipping, harvest seasons, and other high-demand periods are becoming increasingly stressful for shippers who need guaranteed delivery windows.

The ripple effect is real: when there aren't enough drivers to handle normal volume, even small disruptions can cause major delays. A breakdown, weather event, or other issue that used to cause minor delays can now create significant bottlenecks.

Small Carriers Are Struggling

Many small and independent trucking companies rely heavily on immigrant labor. As these drivers lose their CDLs or can't get them renewed, smaller carriers are being forced out of business entirely. This further reduces the pool of available capacity and puts even more pressure on remaining carriers.

For shippers, this means fewer options and less competition among carriers: which translates to higher rates and less flexibility in scheduling.

Signs of Hope (Sort Of)

Before you panic completely, there are some positive indicators in the freight market. After a brutal freight recession that lasted through most of 2023 and 2024, 2025 is showing signs of stabilization. Capacity is tightening (which is good for carriers, less so for shippers), and spending is starting to increase.

The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a steady 2.0% year-over-year in 2025, and the trucking industry is expected to grow at a 3.0% compound annual growth rate through 2027. So while the short-term challenges are real, the industry isn't disappearing.

What Shippers Can Do Right Now

Here's the good news: you're not powerless in this situation. There are concrete steps you can take to protect your shipments and manage costs:

Build Stronger Carrier Relationships

This isn't the time to play the field with whoever offers the lowest rate. Focus on building solid relationships with 3-5 reliable carriers who know your business and prioritize your freight. Loyal customers get priority when capacity gets tight.

Plan Further Ahead

The days of calling for a truck and having it show up the same day are mostly over. Plan your shipments at least a week in advance when possible, and communicate with your carriers about upcoming volume.

Consider Contract Rates

Spot rates are volatile and trending upward. If you have consistent shipping needs, negotiating contract rates with reliable carriers can provide cost predictability and guarantee capacity.

Diversify Your Options

Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Work with carriers of different sizes and specialties. Mix large national carriers with regional players who might have better service in your specific lanes.

Optimize Your Operations

Look for ways to make your freight more attractive to carriers. Consistent volume, flexible pickup/delivery times, and efficient loading/unloading processes can help you stand out from other shippers.

How IMFX Helps You Navigate the Chaos

This is exactly why partnering with an experienced freight broker like IMFX makes sense right now. While other shippers are scrambling to find capacity, we're leveraging our established carrier network and industry relationships to keep your freight moving.

Here's what we bring to the table:

Pre-Vetted Carrier Network: We work with carriers who have their documentation in order and aren't at risk of losing drivers due to licensing issues.

Capacity Planning: We help you anticipate tight capacity periods and secure space ahead of time, so you're not left scrambling when everyone else is fighting for the same trucks.

Rate Stability: Our contract relationships help shield you from the worst of the spot rate volatility, giving you more predictable shipping costs.

Problem Solving: When issues do arise (and they will), we have the relationships and expertise to find solutions fast, whether that's rerouting shipments or finding backup capacity.

The Bottom Line

Reliable truckers aren't dead, but the industry is definitely going through some growing pains. The combination of regulatory changes, driver shortages, and market dynamics means shippers need to be smarter and more strategic than ever.

The carriers and drivers who remain in the market are adapting to stricter regulations and becoming more selective about the freight they haul. This means higher rates and tighter capacity for the foreseeable future, but it also means the drivers and carriers still operating are generally the most professional and reliable in the industry.

Your shipments will likely cost more and require more advance planning, but with the right approach and partnerships, you can still get your freight where it needs to go on time and intact.

The key is working with partners who understand these challenges and have the network and expertise to help you navigate them. That's where IMFX comes in.

Ready to stop worrying about whether you'll find reliable capacity for your next shipment? Let's talk about how IMFX can help you build a freight strategy that works in today's challenging market. Reach out to our team, and let's figure out how to keep your supply chain moving smoothly, no matter what regulatory curveballs come next.